Obama at 44
Guess what—the Real Clear Politics average of leading polls currently shows Obama with an approval rating of 44.0 percent. What happened to his long-time, constantly re-iterated “lowest ever” rating of 43? What happened to his “worsening” and “plummeting” approval rating as it sank below 43, even sank into the high 30s? The fact is that Obama today has the same approval rating that he’s had for almost the last two years. Notwithstanding the giddy effusions of conservative opinion writers that Obama is the greatest disaster since the Edsel and getting more disastrous by the minute and that his humiliating defeat in 2012 is a foregone conclusion, he remains well within range of recovering and winning. The fact that Republicans/conservatives keep indulging in the pleasurable fantasy that Obama is a sure loser, rather than recognizing that defeating him is going to be difficult and steeling themselves for that difficult task, is for me the strongest single indicator that he may not lose.
Obama will be reelected because the conditions that led to his election have not been reversed.Alexis Zarkov writes:
Real Clear Politics takes a simple average of 7 polls (I checked the numbers) to get that 44 percent approval. On the other hand, Pollster.com uses a very sophisticated algorithm to compute and plot trend lines for Obama’s approval rating and uses more polls. As of today, Pollster.com gets 42.8 percent using their technique. The components also differ slightly. For example Pollster has Rasmussen (10/24-10/26) at 43 percent while RealClear uses Rasmussen (10/25-10/27) at 44 percent. They both have Gallup at 43 percent and CBS at 46 percent. Zooming in on the Pollster plot, we see that Obama bottomed out at a little under 43 percent in early to mid September with a suggestion (from the graph) that he’s on a very slight uptrend. RealClear doesn’t give a plot so we can’t see how their average is changing with time making it difficult to interpret their 44 number. I (and others) trust Pollster far more than RealClear. As I have stated before, based on research, polls are very poor predictors this far from the election. The state of the economy provides a much better indicator. Hibbs Bread and Peace model shows Obama getting 46 percent of the popular vote in 2012 as of May this year. Since the economy, as measured by the inflation adjusted per capita disposable income, shows no improvement from May, Obama is scheduled to lose. Thus for many reasons, this “Obama at 44” carries virtually no significance.James N. replies:
If Obama loses because the economy has not improved, and he is replaced by someone who thinks that the economy can be improved by “less income inequality,” more “programs,” and more debt, what will have been accomplished?Alexis Zarkov writes:
I agree with James N. in part. Most Republicans, especially RINOs like Mitt Romney, don’t offer us much of a difference. The Republicans have never tried to unwind the welfare state as put in place by FDR and LBJ. Even Ronald Reagan didn’t reverse the growth of the federal government. All he did was restrain, somewhat, the rate of increase. For those of you who remember your calculus, he decreased the first derivative (speed), which made the second derivative (acceleration) negative. His critics attacked him for “cutting” the budget. He did no such thing. In Washington a “cut” is a failure to maintain the accelerating (positive second derivative) budget growth.Jim C. writes:
The reason he will lose is that the independents, who tend to be more intelligent than the reds and the blues, have been wise to this punk for a while. Their memories of this smirking twit will be fresh when they enter the voting booth. Count on it.
Posted by Lawrence Auster at October 28, 2011 10:12 AM | Send