Good news … or (update) not
(Note: Stupak’s press conference was cancelled this morning, apparently as result of inability to reach deal with Pelosi. See below.)
Here’s the latest twist on the Stupak Paradox, which seems to have gone our way, perhaps decisively and finally.
Stupak is ‘Finished with Pelosi’ [Robert Costa]Once again, conservatives will cheer Stupak, not realizing that he was devoutly seeking a compromise which would allow him to vote for the bill, but that Pelosi wouldn’t deal. However, notwithstanding Stupak’s comment this morning that he’s finished with Pelosi, one hour later the Corner was reporting that Pelosi is now apparently reaching out to him again:
Will Stupak Be Silenced by Executive Order? [Daniel Foster]Silenced? It’s not a matter of Stupak being silenced, but getting him to vote for the bill. I haven’t seen anything on the Web today about Stupak’s announced press conference.
I find this on Stupak at The Hill’s daily update of the whip count:
Bart Stupak (Mich.) Was going to hold March 20 press conference with “other pro-life Democrats,” but is was canceled on Saturday morning. Many believe the press conference was to announce a deal with Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), but any deal is off—at least for the moment.Also, there has been no change in the Hill’s count of 35 Democratic Firm or Likely No’s. However, the Undecideds have declined again, from 39 as of 6:57 p.m. yesterday to 34 as of 12:49 p.m. today. But again, there is no easy way of telling where those Undecideds have moved.
Fortunately, I still had the whip count page from yesterday in the browser History on my second computer and was able to work offline and access it for comparison:
Yesterday at 6:57 p.m.:
Firm, Likely, or Leaning No 35
Today at 12:49 p.m.:
Firm, Likely, or Leaning No: 35
So, Undecideds have dropped by 5, Leaning or Likely Yes has declined by 2, and Firm Yes’s have increased by 11 (!). All since 7 p.m. yesterday. The drop in the first two categories would only account for 7 of the 11 new ones in the Firm Yes category. Where did the additional 4 come from? Since the overall number of Dems included in the whip count increased by 4, this means that 4 Democrats who had already been considered definite Yes (and therefore were not included in the whip count) were added to the whip count. Note: the Democrats being counted by The Hill’s whip count are only those who were not considered a definite Yes to begin with.
Bottom line: Five previously Undecided Democrats and two previously Likely Yes Democrats have moved into the Firm Yes category and none have moved into the No category.
But again the major problem is the lack of fit between The Hill’s count and Cantor’s estimate yesterday of 33 Firm No’s plus the Stupak 12 making it 45 No’s. As far as I can tell, the Stupak group are already included in The Hill’s 35 No’s. Which would make Cantor’s estimate way off. However, he’s the whip whose job is counting votes and presumably has a better read on this than outside reporters.