When it comes to substantive ideas about society, the “conservative” Michael Barone is a soulless liberal idiot—pro-homosexual “marriage,” pro-amnesty and open borders, etc. His area of competence is the mechanics of elections. And, in a startling column, he “goes out on a limb,” as he calls it, and predicts a strong Romney victory. Of fourteen battleground states, he says that the following will go for Romney: Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Only Minnesota, Nevada, Oregon, and Michigan does he predict for Obama.
D. Edwards writes:
As with Scott Brown in Massachusetts in 2010, as with the 2010 congressional elections (biggest turnover in 60 years), as with the Scott Walker recall election, as with the campaign against Chik-Fil-A, it comes down to the energy.A pollster writes:
That’s a best case scenario for Romney but it’s plausible if you use the “Incumbents with under 50 percent lose” rule, because undecided voters tend to vote for the challenger. I believe Romney may be ahead in Pennsylvania in an ideal Platonic election, but the pro-Democrat fraud factor in that state is huge, and fraud may cost Romney Ohio too. That brings Romney down to 277, so he could still afford to lose Iowa or New Hampshire, or Colorado if he picks up Maine’s 2nd CD.Timothy A. writes:
I wonder if Barone calls himself a conservative? Certainly he is seen that way, but he seems to me to just be one of those old liberals whose positions have not shifted over the last 30 years while the entire political spectrum has ratcheted far to the left. Anyway, I always used to love to read through his Almanac of American Politics (this was 20 or 30 years ago) with its histories and analyses of the local cultures of America as reflected in its congressional districts.Henry S. writes:
Agree with you 100 percent about hack Barone, but in this case I agree with him. The 2012 polls are mostly using the 2008 model, which assumes a D+8 advantage. I have read that in some cases the model weights Democratic turnout even more heavily than that. I don’t know why they are doing this.Dave T. writes:
For what it’s worth, my own expectations prior to reading the article were exactly in line with Barone’s except for Pennsylvania, which I still think Obama will win by a very narrow result. Hence, I think the electoral outcome will be somewhere in the vicinity of Romney 295, Obama 243.Henry S. writes:
For what it’s worth, I’m with Dave T. on Pennsylvania because too many of the Sane Core can’t break with their Democratic brainwashing.
Posted by Lawrence Auster at November 02, 2012 08:35 PM | Send