An exchange on the election
Andrew B. writes:
I guess everything will be revealed and clarified by next Wednesday morning. Exciting, isn’t it?LA replies:
I found it exciting several weeks ago when Romney started to move up in polls and I began checking out and posting the state-by-state numbers, which was fun.LA continues:
Here’s the thing that fascinates me. The race is a tie according to the polls. So of course I can see the possibility of Romney winning. However, the poll numbers are not my primary index in this matter, but my own intuitions, by which I mean my sense of the shape of things. My sense of the overall shape of events, particularly of the way America keeps moving left, no matter how vile and disastrous the left shows itself to be (e.g. the economy, the deficit, Benghazi, Obama’s open alliance with our jihadist enemies), and of Obama’s extraordinary symbolic importance to the American mind as first nonwhite president, tells me he will not lose.Andrew B. replies:
I agree with your intuitions and with the odds you are giving. Romney has got a shot, but everything has got to go right for him. It’s happened before. See the 2000 election.
LA wrote: “By the way, I will not look at TV on election night. I will get my info from the Web.”Gintas writes:
If Obama wins: The search for our St. George continues in the scorching desert of invincible Republican stupidity.Mark Jaws writes:
I am with you, Don Lorenzo, with your 3-1 odds on Obama. My reasoning has nothing to do with Obama being the first non-white president. I think that novelty has long worn thin—even among blacks. My anxiety is based on something more tangible and more threatening—the human tidal wave of non-white, welfare-dependent immigration which has altered forever the electoral map of America, thus making it possible in the very near future for a Democratic candidate to win with as little as 33% of the white vote.Ed H. writes:
We are now quibbling about where Romney will find the three or four electoral votes to allow him to squeak by. The GOP is wringing its hands, second guessing every poll, hoping against hope. Where was the GOP establishment when it gave away my home state, California, to the Left without a fight? That’s 55 electoral votes and 25 million popular votes just given away. In 1962 California was 92 percent white. It produced Ronald Reagan, Richard Nixon, John Wayne, etc. Did any GOPers stop to think that their brand of conservatism was possible only with a white European demographic? While he was posturing during the Cold War, did Ronald Reagan, signer of the 1986 amnesty, ever stop to think that the real socialist threat wasn’t Soviet ICBMs coming in over the North Pole at 17,000 mph but rather 20 million Mexican peasants walking across the southern border pushing baby strollers? As recently as 2010 the GOP allowed the University of California to implement the Dream Act without opposition. University of California is massively dependent on federal grant money. Lawrence Livermore Labs props up the entire system. Did any GOP types think of letting UC know who is calling the shots by demanding that federal grants and contracts be withheld from LLL until UC was in compliance with immigration law? How about sanctuary cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco, how long would these places continue as hot beds of Third World socialism if they had to decide between federal highway and the blessing of millions of illegal aliens residing inside the city limits? Sorry, I cannot be too sympathetic with the GOP’s plight at this time. It’s been a long time in the making. They did it to themselves and continue doing it. They have learned nothing.Andrew B. writes:
Somewhat off-topic, but a hoot to read: RCP’s first attempt at election forecasting, posted on November 6, 2000.
Posted by Lawrence Auster at October 31, 2012 04:15 PM | Send