How good is Zogby?

The day before the Michigan primary, pollster John Zobgy said on CSPAN that Mitt Romney was ahead of John McCain in double digits among Republicans but that the race as a whole was a toss-up because 52 percent of the voters would be Democrats and Independents. As it turned out, Republicans made up, not 48 percent of the primary voters, but 68 percent, and Romney trounced McCain by almost ten points.

It seems that Zogby’s projection of 52 percent non-Republicans was based on the 2000 Michigan primary, when 17 percent of voters in the Republican primary were Democrats, and 35 percent were Independents. Other pollsters, not using Zogby’s flawed assumptions, predicted both a much higher Republican percentage in the 2008 Michigan primary, and a Romney victory.

Posted by Lawrence Auster at January 16, 2008 11:57 AM | Send