The missing Republican vote is much smaller than has been previously believed
Reflecting the state of knowledge as of November 9, Andrew McCarthy wrote at NRO on November 10:
About 11 million fewer Americans voted for the two major-party candidates in 2012—119 million, down from 130 million in 2008….In fact, the vote figures have continued to be updated. As of today, November 16, the NBC page on the election shows:
Let’s compare that to the 2008 election (Wikipedia):
The total vote for the two major candidates in 2012 was 121,757,400. Since in 2008 the total vote for the two major candidates was 129,391,700, the decrease in the total vote for the two major candidates in 2012 as compared with 2008 is 7,634,300. That is substantially less than the 11 million figure we had earlier heard.
More interesting is the “lost” votes for each of the two major candidates as compared with 2008. Obama’s falling off from 2008, while less than the earlier figure of nine million, is still huge: 6,841,491. But Romney’s “missing” turnout as compared to 2008 has, in the updated tally, shrunk from two million to 792,810.
Also, Obama’s victory margin in 2008 was 9,522,083, which in 2012 went down to 3,473,402.
In sum, the missing Republican vote was a much smaller factor in the 2012 election outcome than has previously been believed. Even if all those disenchanted former Republican voters had turned out for Romney and he had equaled McCain’s 2008 vote, he still would have fallen short of Obama by more than two million votes. Now the same is also the case with the earlier figures from just after the election. But still, 800,000 missing votes is a lot less impressive, or worrying, than two million missing votes.
Posted by Lawrence Auster at November 16, 2012 10:11 AM | Send