The divergence between the national polls and the state polls
The eponymously named Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics notes the difference between the national polls, which show Romney leading in the national popular vote, and which are being touted by Republicans, and the state polls, which show Obama leading in the electoral vote, and which are being touted by Democrats. He tries various complicated methods (which I do not understand or follow) to reconcile the two and admits that he has failed to reconcile them. He concludes that neither the Republican-touted Romney national popular vote lead nor the Democrat-touted Obama electoral vote lead can be relied on as the more correct at this moment, and that we will simply have to wait to see if the national and the state polls converge over the next five days—or else just wait for the election results themselves. It sounds almost heretical.
The article was sent by Andrew B., who says that it backs up his point that the Romney national popular lead shown by Rasmussen and Gallup cannot be relied on.
(Note: I think I’m using “eponymously” incorrectly above; but what is the correct word for a person’s name that happens to correspond with his profession? Remember President Reagan’s press spokesman, Larry Speakes? Or what if the late culture critic Neil Postman had actually been—a postman?)
Didn’t know there was such a word, but apparently there is: aptronym.Gintas writes:
You wrote:Gintas writes:
If Real Clear Politics were named “Trende-ing Politics,” or “Trendes in Politics,” or something otherwise Trende-y, then Sean Trende would be an eponymous founder of it. Or if his name were Sean Clear, then he would be the eponymous founder of Real Clear Politics.Richard F. writes:
As a more apt word than “eponymously,” perhaps “serendipitously”?
Posted by Lawrence Auster at November 01, 2012 08:59 AM | Send