Rubin on Iran
On the Iran threat and the possibility of a war, Barry Rubin makes two points, one of which is in rough agreement with my own and one of which is diametrically opposed to my own.
First, Rubin says that all the talk about an imminent attack on Iran is blather. Israel is not about to attack Iran this year or any time soon, for a variety of reasons. This view more or less lines up with my complete ignoring of the recent obsessive war talk. I ignored it because I didn’t see anything real there.
He acts as if the putative threat only consists in the possibility that Iran may launch a nuclear war against Israel, and since he doesn’t see Iran doing that, he dismisses the idea that Iran represents such a danger that a military attack on its nuclear facilities is necessary.
In my discussions and warnings about the Iran threat, I don’t think I have ever said that I thought it was likely that Iran would use nuclear weapons on Israel. I said that Iran would use the threat of a nuclear attack on Israel and on other countries, including the EU, in order to impose its will. I said that it was totally unacceptable for Iran to acquire such a capability and that it must be stopped. For example, Europe is already toiling under the fear of Islam. Imagine if in addition to the current fears, Iran said that Europe must do X in relation to Israel, or must not to Y in relation to Muslim immigrants in Europe, or else Iran would use its nuclear weapons. Iran simply must not be allowed to have that kind of power.
So I differ from Rubin by 180 degrees on this issue. He says Iran is not a serious threat. I say it is.
In the same article Rubin also lists various current beliefs about the Mideast which he says are myths. It would be useful to write down his myths and check them in six months to see if his diagnosis is borne out.