Bachmann in statistical tie for lead in Iowa poll

Steve Singiser at Daily Kos writes:As was the case on Tuesday, Wednesday brought us another data load of pure discord. It was, once again, “choose your own meme” day in the polling world, with numbers so disparate as to once again [sic] leave experienced polling observers to conclude that either (a) someone is way the hell off, or (b) this election cycle is simply making no sense whatsoever. In all probability, some truth can probably be divined from both of those statements.

Singiser lists the results of eight national and state polls on the Republican contest. My interest here is Iowa. Look at this:

IOWA (Iowa State U.): Paul 28, Gingrich 25, Romney 18, Perry 11, Bachmann 7, Santorum 5, Huntsman 0

IOWA (Rasmussen): Romney 25, Paul 20, Gingrich 17, Perry 10, Santorum 10, Bachmann 6, Huntsman 4

IOWA (We Ask America—R): Paul 19, Romney 18, Gingrich 16, Bachmann 15, Perry 11, Santorum 9, Huntsman 4

Bachmann is a distant fifth in Iowa State U.’s poll, and a distant sixth in Rasmussen. But in the We Ask America poll, she is four points behind the leader Paul, in a statistical four-way tie for first place.

Iowa State and Rasmussen are saying something old. We Ask America is saying something new. From these contradictory data, my conclusion: there are signs that Bachmann is making a remarkable come-back in Iowa and is still in this race.

- end of initial entry -

LA writes:

I hadn’t heard of the We Ask America polling organization before, so I went to their website and found this at the About page:

Whether you want to call a million households or a few hundred, We Ask America can dial your constituency. We call nearly four million voters a year to ask their opinions on political races, key issues, consumer habits and scores of other topics important to our customers.

Whether you want a traditional interview poll or a large-sample automated survey, We Ask America can provide you with timely, accurate and affordable results.

They provide accurate polls! That’s good enough for me.

Posted by Lawrence Auster at December 22, 2011 07:00 AM | Send

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