Is the bottom about to fall out of Obama’s base?
When Obama’s approval rating dropped to 39 points in the Gallup daily tracking poll a couple of weeks ago I made an exception and covered it, because here at long last was a genuinely new low in his approval rating, rather than an old low being falsely puffed as a new low.
According to Dick Morris, Obama’s approval rating is going to go much lower. In his September 1st “lunch alert” video presentation, Morris says that while Obama’s approval is now between 40 and 38 percent, one third of those who approve of him say they are disappointed in him. What this means, Morris continues, is that those people may be on the verge of switching from approval of Obama to non-approval, potentially dropping his approval rating from the high 30s to the high 20s.
As a further index of how bad things look for Obama, Morris points out that his steady very high approval among blacks, about 78 percent, means that blacks represent nine or ten percent of the country out of the 38 percent of the country that approves of him (78 percent of the 13 percent of the country that is black is about ten percent of the country). If Obama’s overall approval rating drops to 27 percent, “one out of every three people who approve of him will be black, and his percentage among white and Latino voters is minuscule. So I think Obama is heading for serious trouble….”
However, a major problem in Morris’s analysis is that, as you can see at this Wikipedia page, all the polling organizations apart from Gallup show Obama’s approval as substantially higher than 38 percent, averaging in the mid 40s. And the mid 40s, let us remember, is where Obama has essentially been for the last year and a half, even as mainstream conservatives constantly huffed and puffed that he was sinking to unprecedented lows.
Alexis Zarkov writes:
Mr. Auster writes, “all the polling organizations apart from Gallup show Obama’s approval as substantially higher than 38 percent, averaging in the mid 40s.” This is not correct. His overall approval rating is currently 41.6 percent, which is an all time low. His current approval rating is not in the mid 40s. Some of the numbers in the Wikipedia table are out of date, and one cannot take a simple average to arrive at a valid estimate. Pollster.com does the averaging properly. They use an advanced smoothing technique based on the Kalman filter which assigns a weighting to the various pollsters based on their position in time, and the known performance of the pollster. The “margin of error” (MOE) pollsters give does not capture the true pollster error, which is much larger. The MOE only pertains to sample size. Two polls from different pollsters with the same MOE don’t have the same error. Pollster.com provides the best estimate of Obama’s overall approval you will get anywhere because it properly combines the available polling information. Don’t go to Wikipedia, go to Pollster.com.
Posted by Lawrence Auster at September 04, 2011 09:44 PM | Send