Bold prediction of an electoral earthquake
Scott Rasmussen predicts a GOP pickup of 55 seats in the House. Larry Sabato predicts 47, though he says it could be a bit higher than that. Paul Rahe writing at Big Government says that both pollsters, while responsible and scientific, are being overly cautious, understandably desirous not to put themselves out on a limb. Rahe thinks that there is a historic turning point coming, and that no one sees it yet:
Where do we turn for guidance? I would suggest that we look at the grand-daddy of all the polls: the generic ballot data that the Gallup Organization has been collecting for almost sixty years. If one assumes a turn-out on 2 November of about forty percent of the registered voters, a percentage ever so slightly higher than the record in midterm elections since 1974, Gallup tells us that the Republicans will have an advantage over the Democrats of something along the lines of seventeen percent. If the turnout of registered voters reaches fifty-five percent, the Republicans will be ahead by about eleven percent….A personal comment. In my view, for what the Democrats did with porkulus and Obamacare, they deserve to lose 100 seats. Hell, they deserve to lose 258 seats.
James W. writes:
What the pollsters oddly miss in their calculations is that there are two completely different turnouts in the same election. The Democrat turnout will be historically low, the Republican historically high. Taken altogether this may be an unremarkable average, but it is nothing of the sort.LA replies:
I had wondered about that too. Why would the Republican advantage be less if there is greater overall turnout? I guess the thinking is, since the basic expectation is low Democratic turnout, if there is high overall turnout, it would be because Democratic turnout is higher than the low Democratic turnout that is expected. But your point makes sense. Why couldn’t the higher overall turnout be due to even higher than expected Republican turnout, rather than higher than expected Democratic turnout, in which case a high overall turnout of 55 percent would present a much greater Republican advantage than a low overall turnout of 40 percent.
Posted by Lawrence Auster at October 20, 2010 11:43 AM | Send