Today’s “whip count”

In The Hill’s whip count as of 6:57 p.m. today, the number of “firm-likely-leaning” Democratic No votes has decreased from yesterday’s count of 36 to 35. Apparently two representatives were moved from the likely/firm No’s to the Undecideds, while one moved from the Undecideds to a definite yes, explaining the net drop of one. Meanwhile, the Undecideds have declined from 48 to 39. Where did they go? The Hill’s manner of presenting this information is fragmented and confusing, with the different categories and numbers not coordinated with each other, and without an overall view. For example, with some of the updated members’ positions listed today, it is unclear which list the member was on before the update. However, by searching one by one for the recently updated names listed at the top of the page, I found that there are nine Democrats who today announced that they are definitely voting yes. So that would account for the decrease in the Undecideds. This is not good. As I said yesterday, several of the 48 Undecideds as of yesterday must move to the No camp.

For better news, but with numbers incommensurable with The Hill’s whip count, an actual whip, Eric Cantor, says that there are 33 committed Democratic No’s, plus the Stupak 12, adding up to 45, seven more than are needed to stop the bill. This is hard to understand. If the Stupak 12 are committed No’s, why aren’t they already added to the No list at The Hill, which would make the No list much larger? And didn’t Stupak say last week that two of his group had fallen away? Also, it seems that the Democratic leadership, having given up on pleasing the Stupak group a week ago, is now negotiating with them again over a promise to revisit the law after it’s passed and remove the offensive abortion measures. Apparently at least some of the Stupak group, including Stupak, are open to this. I’ve read elsewhere that Stupak is giving a press conference tomorrow morning.

Meanwhile, AllahPundit at HotAir is rebutting Cantor’s statement. Correction: AllahPundit is gleefully shooting down Cantor’s statement. I thought that AllahPundit, whoever the hell he is with that stupid pseudonym, is supposed to be on our side. But he’s positively committed to the proposition that the Democrats are going to win, and seems to get pleasure from proving that he’s right.

My summary of the updated whip count

Jason Altmire said today he is definitely voting no. As I said, The Hill doesn’t tell you on what list the member was previously placed. Is Altmire moved from likely No to definite No (meaning he is on the same list as yesterday)?. Or was he moved from the Undecideds to the No’s? However, I saved yesterday’s whip count on my computer, and can see that Altmire yesterday was on the Undecided list. So he is the one gain for the No camp today.

Jim Matheson moved by Hill from no to undecided
Lincoln Davis moved from likely no to undecided

Bob Etheridge, announced today he is yes
Suzanne Kosmas, announced today she is yes
Brad Ellsworth announced today he is yes
Joe Courtney, said today he is yes
Allen Boyd said today he is yes
Dina Titus said today she is yes
Chris Murphy said today he will vote yes
John Boccieri said today he was voting yes
Charlie Wilson said today he is voting yes

However, those nine are not as bad as it may seem. According to Tory Newmyer at Roll Call, only three of the Democrats announcing their Yes vote today voted No the last time.

Other changes

Scott Murphy moved to likely yes
Adam Smith, changed to leaning yes

Posted by Lawrence Auster at March 19, 2010 10:17 PM | Send

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