Zogby: Brown ties with Obama in hypothetical presidential race

A. Zarkov writes:

As reported in U.S. News and World Report, pollster John Zogby gives Obama an “F” for his performance as president for week 53 of his term. Obama had been getting a “C” grade from Zogby, but Scott Brown’s win has changed everything. It’s not clear how Zogby determines his grades. He says he uses “polling, expert analysis, and interaction with major players,” which is pretty vague. Nevertheless, we have an another indication that Obama’s world is crumbling around him. As reported at NewsMax, Zogby polled 4,163 likely voters in a hypothetical Obama versus Brown race for president, and Brown comes in only one point lower. Once again the press regards this as a “statistical tie” but that’s not right. Obama would have a 90 percent chance of winning apart from the undecided. I should have a new calculation soon, which includes the extra uncertainty caused undecided responses, so that 90 percent should drop. But this new poll is still very bad news for Obama.

Obama has three years left in this term, and retains solid support among blacks and Hispanics. But if he doesn’t self-correct, he will continue to hemorrhage white votes. Can Obama make the necessary mid course changes? I doubt it. If Obama really does suffer from narcissistic personality disorder, he will have considerable difficulty admitting mistakes. He will continue to blame George Bush and everyone else for his errors. We will know more after his State of the Union address. If he shows a willingness to admit mistakes and makes substantial policy changes, he has a good chance to recover, at least personally. But if unemployment continues to be high through June, the Democrats could still lose big in November. Then Obama can blame Congress for the sorry state of the Republic.

Posted by Lawrence Auster at January 27, 2010 10:58 AM | Send

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