Hoffman loses to Owens!
Just a few minutes ago, Douglas Hoffman conceded the special Congressional election in upstate New York to Democrat William Owens. This is truly surprising, that after Hoffman’s insurgent Conservative candidacy forced the very liberal Republican Deirdre Scozzafava out of the race, and after the latter’s shocking endorsement of the Democrat Owens, which discredited her and confirmed everything her conservative critics had said about her, and after Hoffman surged 20 points ahead of Owens in at least one poll over the weekend—that after all this blazing drama, which had become a fixation of the national political class, Hoffman loses. Politics is as exciting and as filled with ups and downs as the World Series.
All is not lost, however. Let us remember what Stephen T. said earlier today: Hoffman is your standard, Cato-style conservative: against big taxes and spending, but in favor of unlimited Hispanic immigration and the legalization of illegal aliens.
Tori D. writes from Kansas:
There is one thing I am good at, and that is predicting political weather patterns. I have an uncanny knack to figure out what is going on, or what will be going on in the future, in politics, if I follow my instincts. I have been posting on Twitter tonight that I believed Hoffman’s (NY-23) downfall was related primarily to the endorsement of Sarah Palin which I believe may have irritated independents. The other thing that may have doomed him was his immigration position which many people would find distasteful in the tea party and 912 movement. I organized a large tea party rally here in Topeka, Kansas and after healthcare, illegal immigration was the most important issue to these people. [LA replies: Hoffman only conceded in the last 45 minutes. Are you saying that you were predicting he would lose, before the returns were in?]LA replies:
This is very interesting, and also hopeful from a traditionalist point of view. After all, while some VFR readers have been Palin supporters, I’ve been very critical of her (though also seeing her good sides and defending her when she was treated unfairly), and I certainly do NOT see her as a positive future for the Republican party and conservatism. She’s a female George W. Bush. Think of the erotic hysteria of Lucianne Goldberg and many of her readers over Bush on the aircraft carrier, with the manly bulge of his flight suit (she still keeps regularly re-posting photos of the magical moment, six and half years later). Palin is the female equivalent of that, arousing fanatical and largely non-rational support from conservatives, when in most ways that count she’s not a conservative at all. With their combination of personal, patriotic allure and neoconservative ideology, the Bush-Palin types deflect most of the available conservative energy away from conservatism and toward a perverted form of patriotism that consists of bizarre universalist fantasies as a replacement for actual defense of our actual country.Jonathan W. writes:
You wrote:November 4All is not lost, however. Let us remember what Stephen T. said earlier today: Hoffman is your standard, Cato-style conservative: against big taxes and spending, but in favor of unlimited Hispanic immigration and the legalization of illegal aliens.You have established pretty conclusively that the latter (unlimited Hispanic immigration) will inevitably lead to the former (big taxes and spending). Do the Cato conservatives truly believe that they can reverse this trend or do they simply not care, figuring that the big taxes and high spending will come later, after they are out of the public eye?
James N. writes:
Very, very interesting. The tea leaves are a little murky. A couple of things stand out:John W. writes:
I’m not sure that Tori D. is completely on target about Hoffman and Palin et al., because Scozzafava still got five percent of the vote. That’s five percent of the electorate that reflexively votes for the candidate with the R after his name. We have to remember that Hoffman came out of no-where running third party; a conservative mindset could tend to look skeptically at someone so new. I’m not sure that NY-23 is exposed to the same immigration woes as the rest of the country which might explain (but not excuse) his position. A serious question for Tori D.: Palin and Hoffrman aren’t perfect but, well, who out there is?LA replies:
“A serious question for Tori D.: Palin and Hoffrman aren’t perfect but, well, who out there is?”Tori writes:
I just assumed by reading the county numbers he could not pull it out. It was not numerically possible unless he won almost every absentee ballot, and no Democrat ever lets that happen, so I made an educated guess that he was going to lose.Tim W. writes:
Hoffman actually performed amazingly well for a candidate unknown to the electorate a month ago. He came within a few points of a heavily financed Democrat. He did this with the local GOP split and with a few percentage points going to the “official” GOP candidate, who was still on the ballot even though she had withdrawn and thrown her support to the Dem.LA replies:
Thank you for this excellent analysis that makes sense of the 23rd district race and its political significance. Yes, even though Hoffman lost, the fact that he came so close, given his liabilities, sends the same message to the political class as though he had won—namely that Republicans need to field more conservative, not more liberal candidates;, and, more to the immediate point, that Democrats in moderate districts who vote for Obamacare will be sent packing. And this message gets sent, without the election of a pro-amnesty Republican. So we’ve gotten the best of both worlds. I’m happy. Stephen T. should be happy.Tori writes:
Here is the link on Hoffman and his stance on illegal immgration that Stephen T. also sent yesterday. It shows that some tea partiers knew Hoffman’s position on immigration and were likely disgusted by it. They are very savvy about these things. They are showing up in comment sections of articles. This article at the Spectator has a couple of comments criticizing Hoffman over immigration.Paul Mulshine of the Newark Star Ledger writes:
A friend of mine who worked on the Hoffman campaign said a lot of it had to do with retail politics. Hoffman is from Lake Placid and was unfamiliar with the issues in Watertown and other parts of the district far away on the Seaway. He apparently got hurt by his ignorance in the debate. Lake Placid is a small and charming mountain town, but not central to anything.
Posted by Lawrence Auster at November 04, 2009 12:52 AM | Send