It may be prudent to be away from NYC the last week of August through Labor day.

Stratfor.com, a private intelligence analysis and forecasting service, which focuses on intelligence, military affairs, international relations, and global energy markets, features this summary of an article at their website:
(The full article is available only by substription, which is expensive.)

“Al Qaeda likely has a number a sleeper cells still imbedded in the United States, and logic dictates that Houston, Texas, is high on their target list.”

The only meaningful characteristic that I can think of that differenciates Houston from any other large American metropolitan area is the concentration of many petrochemical plants in the area southeast of Houston. Would al Qaeda seek to attack, for example, a petroleum refinery? Such an attack would be a change in methods by al Qaeda because such an attack is unlikely to cause heavy casualties wereas al Qaeda has heretofore planned and executed spectacular massacres of large numbers of civilians. The main consequence of an attack on a refinery, besides lines at gas stations as people as people panicly purchase fuel, would be marginally higher gasoline prices. Would al Qaeda expend its assents (sleeper agents) for a quarter a gallon higher fuel prices?

Joshua - I find this very intriguing. My research on this topic is limited, but I am fairly sure that the U.S. currently suffers from a refinery shortage. (I don’t know the exact reason…I believe down-sizing and environmental regulations are two major contributors)

Losing a huge refinery in Houston may have more of an effect than a $0.25 increase in gasoline prices. It would cause inflationary fears, which alone would drastically increase the price. (i.e. everyone will raise prices more than necessary because they assume another supply shortage is looming in the future).

It could be a good tactic for them. They learned the hard way that killing 3,000 New Yorkers got a lot of their friends in Afghanistan blown to smithereens. Perhaps America would react differently to empty wallets? We are a hedonistic society….who knows!

There is an interesting passage in the _Washington Post_ article to which Mr. Auster linked in his web log entry which suggests that al Qaeda launches spectacular attacks more to attract funds and recruits needed to keep itself organizationally viable than to achieve any discrete political goal.

“One counterterrorism official said al Qaeda still aims to carry off an attack that would kill large numbers of people, and is aiming at modes of transportation such as airlines and ships. Anything less than a spectacular attack, such as a suicide bombing, would appear weak to al Qaeda’s financiers, according to the counterterrorism official.”

Mark raises a good point. A sucessful attack on a major refinery complex could very well result in several benefits to Al-Quaeda:

1. If timed properly the sharp rise in fuel prices would hurt Bush against Kerry and could result in the more amenable Kerry in the White House. It worked in Spain, after all.

2. A major panic in fuel prices could precipitate a significant economic downturn, always a plus in Islamist eyes.

3. Higher petroleum prices translates into increased funding for Al-Quaeda, in light of the myriad connections with the Saudi oil monarchy.