Clarifying the Iraq problem

It can take a long time to articulate an issue clearly to oneself, and nowhere is this more the case than with the question of the Iraq war and the subsequent reconstruction of that country. One of our participants has helped accomplish this for me by writing: “That’s why I opposed going in in the first place. I knew there would be no way to leave.” This simple statement points to the essential problem we face. Our postwar task in Iraq, the completion of which would allow us to leave Iraq, is not to create democratic institutions in Iraq; our task is to put in place a government which excludes Ba’athists and Jihadis and which has an effective monopoly on the use of force. If liberal and popular institutions will help in accomplishing that goal, then let’s encourage them; if not, not. Everything else is gravy.

However, in my view, Hussein was such an intolerable danger that we had to overthrow him even if we had believed beforehand that the creation of a stable post-Hussein government was impossible. If in the event it does turn out to be impossible, then we will either have to stay in Iraq for the foreseeable future, or else leave Iraq with the promise that if a Ba’athist or Jihadi regime returns, we will come back and crush them again.

The above reasoning also points us back to the fatal danger of the “democracy” rhetoric that I’ve been criticizing elsewhere: It creates the impression that taking over and re-building a Muslim country is a relatively simple thing to do, whereas in fact it is a commitment that could require a generation at the least, and may be unattainable.

I therefore suggest that the Iraq debate put things in the order that reflects their proper priorities:

1. Build a government that can sustain itself and keep out terrorists (even as we acknowledge that this may be an impossible task, in which case we will just have to leave and threaten to return if dangerous elements take power again);

2. This government should have some measure of rule of law, government accountability, broad representation of the different groups in Iraq, protection of individual rights and so on.

3. Only after those things are in place should we even mention “democracy.”


Posted by Lawrence Auster at October 13, 2003 01:05 PM | Send
    
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Where’s Gen. MacArthur when we need him? He took a xenophobic and fanatical nation and turned it into a functional ‘democracy.’ (That word again…) Japan’s extreme nationalism was based on a religious zeal hardly less vehement than Mohammedanism.

We have the example of ‘democratizing’ Germany to study as a contrast to Gen. MacArthur’s approach. There’s a right way and a wrong way to do things in a given situation.

What can we learn from the ‘democratization’ of Japan as it applies to Iraq?

Posted by: Joel LeFevre on October 13, 2003 7:53 PM

Mr. LeFevre asks:
“What can we learn from the ‘democratization’ of Japan as it applies to Iraq?”

That the Japanese are really different from the Iraqis?

Sorry, couldn’t resist…

Posted by: Matt on October 13, 2003 8:02 PM

Several unique factors obtained there: (1) the Japanese’ hierarchical culture and their obedience to authority; (2) the atomic bomb, which demonstrated total American power over Japan and made them submit to us; (3) the emperor’s statement calling on Japan to surrender, so that total Japanese obedience to the emperor was combined with willing Japanese obedience to the American conquerors; and (4) McArthur’s extraordinary leadership. Had any of these factors been lacking, it’s hard to imagine anything like the genuine peace that actually ensued.

As Jim Kalb said once, the Germans and Japanese do what they’re told; the Arabs do not. Germans and Japanese are governable; but there is little evidence that Arabs are governable except through despotism. As I’ve said, these considerations did not lead me to conclude that we must not overthrow Hussein, since I agreed with Bush that that was necessary. But it is extremely unfortunate that the administration and the public—not to mention the neocon right—were not more realistic before the fact about the problems that would inevitably result from our trying to run and re-make an Arab country.

Posted by: Lawrence Auster on October 13, 2003 8:05 PM

It is always possible that reality is too unpalatable for most people to face. Perhaps it is simply true that you can’t govern Arabs; you can only kill the worst and pound the rest into submission when they become dangerous. I am not saying that that is definitely the truth, but it is something that any serious person ought to consider as a possibility. Because if it is true then it obviously has policy implications.

Posted by: Matt on October 13, 2003 8:21 PM

Well said by el Matto.

Posted by: Lawrence Auster on October 13, 2003 8:29 PM

Ok, that does put things in perspective. Thanks for the reply.

As for you Matt, always refreshing to see you offer a post in plain English! ;-)

Posted by: Joel LeFevre on October 13, 2003 8:40 PM

Another difference between the Germans, the Japanese, and the Iraqis is IQ. That makes all the difference in the world.

The best article I saw on occupying Iraq came out before the war, and was by Stanly Kurtz: http://www.policyreview.org/apr03/kurtz.html

In it, he claimed that the best model for the occupation of Iraq was the British rule of India.

As I side point, I will recommend a great book on Japan after WWII: “Embracing Defeat” by John Dower. The most salient point to me was the fact that we left the bureaucracy substantially the same as we found it. The people in charge in the 1950s were often the same people who had been appointed by Hirohito before the war.

Posted by: Thrasymachus on October 13, 2003 9:49 PM

The samurai in Japan faced a crisis when they were no longer allowed the monopoly on military power of their early years. At least by the 19th century, they responded by becoming public servants (we would pejoratively call them “bureaucrats”). They carried the spirit of true public service and the avoidance of corruption, which was thought to bring dishonor on one’s family, into the new Japanese civil service. Perhaps this is why, as Thrasymachus noted, MacArthur chose to leave their descendants in charge of the civil service/bureaucracy. They were competent AND not corrupt.

In contrast, Iraq is the typical clannish, tribal Third World country, in which the holder of a government job is expected to “take care of” his tribe and clan and not necessarily serve the public at large in an impartial manner. This leaves Iraq about 150-200 years behind the curve in any comparisons with our imposition of a constitutional democracy in Japan.

As an aside, we continue to import clannish, tribal peoples from Third World countries into our country, complete with their blase attitudes towards civil service corruption. As an example, when two of the 9/11 hijackers needed forged Virginia drivers licenses, they went to a 7-11 parking lot in Alexandria where Hispanic illegals were known to congregate, looking for day jobs. They asked where they could get IDs, and were told to come back that night. That night, they gave money to a Virginia Department of Motor Vehicles employee who made money on the side by illegally providing drivers licenses to persons without proper documentation. With their new, valid Virginia ID, they moved about freely and scoped out Dulles airport, etc., and helped hijack a plane and fly it into the Pentagon.

By the sheerest coincidence, the corrupt Virginia DMV employee, with the Third World attitude about what you do with your access to government power, was a Central American immigrant. He is now headed to prison.

I will leave the following as an exercise for the reader: Explain why such people are allowed to work in our civil service in the first place, even if they have become naturalized citizens.

Posted by: Clark Coleman on October 13, 2003 10:19 PM

That’s fascinating information from Mr. Coleman. I never knew that about the Japanese bureaucracy being manned by members of the Samurai class with a code of honor and public service, and how this made possible the efficient functioning of modern Japan.

Also, I’ve heard about the 9/11 hijackers and the Mexican illegals before, but you put the story all together.

Posted by: Lawrence Auster on October 13, 2003 10:29 PM

But wait, I forgot! Uncle Norman and Aunt Midge say that all people in the world are the same, because everyone dislikes to be treated cruelly, and wants good things for their children. As I wrote at Front Page magazine:

“Decter nevertheless believes that a democratic transformation of Arab society is entirely achievable, and here is her reason: ‘[T]he world is everywhere full of ordinary people who want exactly what we want, though they may not even dare to dream of it. Whether they are Asians or Africans or Middle Easterners or Latin Americans, what they want is a decent place to live, decent food to eat, to be able to stick around long enough to watch their children grow and prosper, and perhaps above all, not to get pushed around by people with guns in their hands.’”

http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/ReadArticle.asp?ID=4043

One can see in this passage the lineal connection between Locke’s social contract theory, with its minimalist and abstract view of human nature, and the neoconservatives.

Posted by: Lawrence Auster on October 13, 2003 10:43 PM

The only thing surprising about Mr. Coleman’s latest post is that the immigrant bureaucrat who abetted the terrorists’ document fraud is actually going to prison.

The United States Army, which I once quaintly thought was in the business of defending the United States, is now actively in the business of abetting document fraud. A Mexican illegal alien in Seattle, Juan Escalante, bought a $50 dollar forged green card and used it to con an Army recruiter into enlisting him. Now that the fraud has been discovered, the Army has declared that it will help Escalante gain legal status, rather than (i) court-martial him for fraudulent enlistment; (ii) separate him with a bad conduct or dishonorable discharge; and (iii) hand him over to the Justice Department for deportation. The Army’s fig-leaf of a reason for flouting the law: Escalante served in Iraq for a few months (although he arrived after the march on Baghdad was over).

The Army’s laxity will have consequences beyond Escalante’s enlistment. Thanks to one of President Bush’s stupidest actions (up there with invading Iraq; sorry, Mr. A., couldn’t resist), unilaterally and unconstitutionally waiving the three year waiting period before alien servicepersons become eligible for citizenship, illegal alien Escalante will become eligible for citizenship immediately. How many more like him are there in the services? Ponder that most recruiters in Hispanic ghettoes are Hispanic themselves and under heavy pressure to make quotas. How scrupulous are they about making sure willing aliens are legal residents? Presumably Escalante’s parents, also illegal aliens, will be able to avoid their scheduled date with deportation. How many more like them are there related to illegal aliens who have been allowed into the armed forces?

The third-worlding of the military proceeds, with consequences we have seen at Guantanamo. Until now, those consequences have mitigated by the requirement that officers be U.S. citizens. Now that any resident alien (or illegal alien, if the Escalante precedent holds) can enlist and become a citizen immediately, that instant citizen can then apply for a commissioning program. Our diversity-mad government will surely welcome their applications. The door opens for al-Qaeda operatives, Chinese intelligence officers, subversive agents of the Mexican government, Colombian narcotraficantes, etc. ad nauseam, to become U.S. citizens and military officers in record time. Do Americans want armed forces composed increasingly of mercenaries of doubtful loyalty to the United States? Will we hear of military service as another “job Americans won’t do”? The only solution, of course, is to limit military service to citizens. How likely is it that the Bushrovicans, who are already subverting citizenship, would support that, to say nothing of the Democrats?

Of course, none of this would trouble Norm and Midge, because these people all really just want to be like Americans, free to consume. The Proposition Lives! …and America dies. HRS

Posted by: Howard Sutherland on October 14, 2003 9:50 AM

Well, Mr. Sutherland, why not? After all, a largely mercenary army of questionable national loyalty worked great for the Roman Empire, didn’t it? Diversity was their strength — that is why they are still an empire today!

Posted by: Clark Coleman on October 14, 2003 9:58 AM

To be fair, the Roman empire survived some fifteen centuries with mercenary armies, although it did lose its less-developed western provinces after a mere five hundred years.

The Roman plan, to hire barbarians at the fringes of the empire to fight other barbarians, thereby keeping the fighting “over there”, is one we might consider. We should send Mexican illegals to Iraq, and bring in Arabs to patrol the southern border. To avoid certain problems which the Romans faced from time to time, Americans should remain heavily armed, of course.

Posted by: Agricola on October 14, 2003 10:57 AM

To Mr. Coleman:

Indeed! HRS

To Agricola:

The Eastern Empire did last a long time, and was continually whittled down until at the end it was no more than the city of Constantinople. Although the Empire retained many of the forms of the Roman Republic, would any Roman of the Republic, one who fought in the Punic Wars, or even one from as late as the time of Caesar and Pompey (when the thing truly fell apart), have recognized the Greek Eastern Empire as his Rome? 100 years from now there may be a political entity called the United States of America, but will it be anything an American of 1800 or even 1900 would recognize as America?

Americans should remain heavily armed, and should insist on citizen-only armed forces. HRS

Posted by: Howard Sutherland on October 14, 2003 1:02 PM

“100 years from now there may be a political entity called the United States of America, […]”

There *may* be? You mean … there might *not* be?

This construction of Mr. Sutherland’s should make everyone’s blood run cold. Everyone’s. The time to act is now, not in a hundred years, or fifty, or twenty, or ten.

Posted by: Unadorned on October 14, 2003 1:18 PM

Over a year ago on this Forum, I warned of a consequence of a US occupation of Iraq. Namely, that Mr. Bush would bring as many Iraqis to this country as possible for cheap labor and the “diversity” he loves so much. If re-elected, I believe he will do exactly that. He will likely implement the open borders policy of the WSJ Editorial Page. He is somewhat restrained from doing that now by the fact that he can’t alienate Middle American voters more than he already has.

Posted by: David on October 14, 2003 2:56 PM

Anyone who reads history understands perfectly well that the USA might not last another century. And bear in mind things move much more quickly now than they did in Roman times. As well, many of the methods employed by the Romans to sustain their position probably can’t be used now because of the way the modern state justifies its existence.

Posted by: John Purdy on October 14, 2003 3:39 PM
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